* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 127 130 133 131 128 118 107 94 84 71 64 V (KT) LAND 120 123 127 130 133 131 128 118 86 51 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 128 130 129 126 121 106 76 47 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 6 3 4 11 15 18 28 19 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 2 -1 -5 -2 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 84 65 130 225 211 202 238 262 281 294 289 291 292 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 157 153 156 151 144 142 139 133 128 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 144 140 135 134 124 116 112 111 106 102 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 8 10 6 8 5 7 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 48 48 50 53 56 59 61 59 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 31 33 31 34 33 30 26 24 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -1 6 10 -4 -21 -25 -23 -12 -10 5 1 9 200 MB DIV -3 -27 0 19 33 -2 23 14 31 0 34 -7 2 700-850 TADV 1 -9 -7 3 5 -4 5 6 0 7 4 -2 13 LAND (KM) 911 944 939 781 625 353 157 38 -19 -76 -168 -225 -258 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.7 30.5 32.1 33.4 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.5 35.7 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.9 69.5 70.8 72.2 74.5 76.3 77.2 77.6 78.0 78.8 79.5 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 12 7 4 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 56 42 45 29 39 49 24 28 11 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -11. -23. -33. -42. -49. -55. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. -1. -5. -10. -19. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 11. 8. -2. -13. -26. -36. -49. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 27.2 66.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1007.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 12.0% 8.3% 5.4% 4.9% 3.9% 4.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 4.7% 13.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.5% 3.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 41( 60) 46( 79) 45( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 25( 39) 13( 46) 13( 53) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 123 127 130 133 131 128 118 86 51 35 29 28 18HR AGO 120 119 123 126 129 127 124 114 82 47 31 25 24 12HR AGO 120 117 116 119 122 120 117 107 75 40 24 18 17 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 113 111 108 98 66 31 15 DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 99 96 86 54 19 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 123 114 108 105 103 100 90 58 23 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 123 127 118 112 108 105 95 63 28 DIS DIS DIS