* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 119 123 126 127 122 117 110 104 99 98 88 V (KT) LAND 115 115 119 123 126 127 122 117 110 70 43 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 117 121 126 127 122 112 99 65 41 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 1 6 8 12 16 20 26 22 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -1 -5 0 -3 4 0 0 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 84 80 77 167 205 199 202 225 240 263 263 257 283 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 159 157 153 155 148 144 140 139 135 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 144 144 141 133 130 121 115 111 109 108 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -50.9 -50.8 -49.9 -49.4 -49.1 -49.2 -49.4 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 10 10 7 9 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 48 50 49 52 54 58 55 54 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 31 31 33 35 35 38 38 39 39 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 5 6 14 -7 -3 -8 1 12 29 43 41 200 MB DIV 13 0 -25 -9 18 17 32 46 51 16 18 17 -3 700-850 TADV 5 1 -5 -4 7 -4 8 6 2 4 1 6 8 LAND (KM) 890 902 917 983 818 505 267 122 23 -41 -85 -141 -246 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.6 29.4 31.2 32.7 33.7 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.6 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 66.1 67.7 69.1 70.6 73.2 75.1 76.4 77.2 77.7 77.9 78.3 79.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 13 9 6 4 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 55 42 47 31 36 41 25 13 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -8. -18. -27. -35. -42. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 4. 8. 11. 12. 7. 2. -5. -11. -16. -17. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.4 64.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 876.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 7.3% 5.1% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.0% 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 33( 54) 40( 72) 41( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 6( 14) 11( 24) 2( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 119 123 126 127 122 117 110 70 43 32 28 18HR AGO 115 114 118 122 125 126 121 116 109 69 42 31 27 12HR AGO 115 112 111 115 118 119 114 109 102 62 35 24 20 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 108 109 104 99 92 52 25 DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 97 92 87 80 40 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 95 90 85 78 38 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 119 110 104 100 95 90 83 43 16 DIS DIS