* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 125 128 132 134 129 126 117 110 104 100 95 V (KT) LAND 120 122 125 128 132 134 129 126 117 60 37 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 122 124 127 129 131 125 118 105 56 36 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 4 1 10 14 19 25 26 24 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -4 -2 -6 -3 -4 2 -1 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 100 86 88 45 305 208 222 221 244 245 264 242 254 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 159 159 153 156 151 143 138 131 124 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 143 145 144 136 134 125 116 111 104 99 96 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.1 -49.5 -49.2 -49.3 -49.2 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 13 11 11 8 9 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 46 48 49 50 53 57 56 51 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 30 30 32 35 35 40 39 39 39 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 12 3 8 -1 -7 -9 0 16 23 42 28 200 MB DIV -5 13 9 -23 -20 29 -2 39 36 41 22 5 0 700-850 TADV 2 2 -1 0 -2 5 2 8 5 4 0 1 7 LAND (KM) 889 914 911 953 951 622 334 135 8 -92 -183 -247 -311 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.7 27.2 28.1 28.9 30.6 32.2 33.6 34.6 35.3 35.8 36.3 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.8 66.3 67.7 69.2 72.1 74.7 76.3 77.2 77.9 78.7 79.1 79.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 8 6 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 43 40 48 37 27 42 42 27 7 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -20. -29. -38. -46. -52. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 9. 6. -3. -10. -16. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 26.1 63.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 926.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 4.3% 3.0% 1.6% 1.1% 2.2% 3.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.3% 9.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 4.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 38( 58) 45( 77) 48( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 16( 26) 23( 43) 5( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 122 125 128 132 134 129 126 117 60 37 30 28 18HR AGO 120 119 122 125 129 131 126 123 114 57 34 27 25 12HR AGO 120 117 116 119 123 125 120 117 108 51 28 21 19 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 114 116 111 108 99 42 19 DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 103 98 95 86 29 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 122 113 107 104 102 97 94 85 28 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 122 125 116 110 106 101 98 89 32 DIS DIS DIS