* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 128 129 132 135 133 128 122 119 112 107 108 V (KT) LAND 120 124 128 129 132 135 133 128 122 60 37 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 126 130 133 135 138 130 122 112 57 36 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 3 2 10 13 20 25 22 30 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -4 -5 -3 -7 -3 0 -1 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 132 62 71 111 165 211 218 206 220 230 258 261 252 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 153 155 157 157 153 156 146 137 130 126 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 140 143 144 142 135 133 121 110 103 100 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -50.7 -50.7 -49.7 -49.3 -48.8 -48.7 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 10 10 6 8 4 8 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 49 48 50 50 55 58 59 55 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 30 29 31 34 36 36 37 42 43 43 47 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 17 14 10 23 0 9 16 21 36 48 53 200 MB DIV -11 -11 8 14 -25 14 14 37 46 50 14 26 14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 1 2 -3 6 1 7 5 -1 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 905 887 893 908 919 809 493 221 4 -132 -176 -233 -310 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.4 27.1 27.7 29.5 31.2 32.9 34.3 35.3 35.8 36.2 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.7 63.1 64.4 66.0 67.6 70.6 73.4 75.8 77.6 78.5 78.6 79.0 79.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 16 15 14 12 8 4 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 44 39 47 39 33 44 26 7 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -10. -19. -28. -37. -45. -51. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 14. 15. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 12. 15. 13. 8. 2. -1. -8. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.6 61.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 894.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 12.5% 9.4% 3.6% 2.1% 4.2% 5.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 12.2% 17.0% 7.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 9.8% 5.6% 1.3% 0.7% 1.4% 1.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 15.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 43( 62) 45( 79) 48( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 12( 19) 16( 32) 9( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 124 128 129 132 135 133 128 122 60 37 30 28 18HR AGO 120 119 123 124 127 130 128 123 117 55 32 25 23 12HR AGO 120 117 116 117 120 123 121 116 110 48 25 18 16 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 113 116 114 109 103 41 18 DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 104 102 97 91 29 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 124 115 109 106 106 104 99 93 31 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 124 128 119 113 109 107 102 96 34 DIS DIS DIS