* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 127 129 132 132 133 133 131 125 116 110 102 106 V (KT) LAND 120 127 129 132 132 133 133 131 125 80 44 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 129 133 135 136 136 134 125 116 74 41 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 4 3 8 12 17 25 22 24 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -7 -2 -3 -6 -4 -5 -8 1 -2 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 119 112 102 106 106 195 188 203 206 233 240 266 256 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.0 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 155 154 156 159 154 156 148 142 135 127 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 141 142 144 145 137 136 124 115 107 101 97 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.2 -49.7 -49.2 -49.1 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 7 9 5 8 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 51 49 50 51 53 57 59 55 51 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 26 31 29 31 34 36 37 39 41 41 46 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 14 23 18 15 5 4 9 24 41 52 77 200 MB DIV -1 -3 -14 4 15 -7 28 31 40 35 37 19 22 700-850 TADV -6 -3 0 3 0 0 2 1 7 2 0 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 930 888 864 894 905 962 622 321 77 -92 -160 -228 -295 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.5 27.1 28.6 30.4 32.2 33.7 34.7 35.2 35.7 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.9 63.1 64.6 66.2 69.4 72.4 75.0 77.2 78.6 79.1 79.6 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 16 16 15 13 10 6 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 26 32 43 39 37 27 43 25 10 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -18. -27. -35. -43. -49. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 12. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. 5. -4. -10. -18. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.2 60.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 875.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.8% 28.1% 25.9% 13.2% 5.3% 8.1% 9.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 22.2% 7.5% 6.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.8% 11.9% 10.7% 4.5% 1.8% 2.7% 3.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 45.0% 32.0% 19.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 44( 62) 45( 79) 46( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 73 67( 91) 75( 98) 71( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 127 129 132 132 133 133 131 125 80 44 32 28 18HR AGO 120 119 121 124 124 125 125 123 117 72 36 24 20 12HR AGO 120 117 116 119 119 120 120 118 112 67 31 19 15 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 110 111 111 109 103 58 22 DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 102 102 100 94 49 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 127 118 112 109 107 107 105 99 54 18 DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 127 129 120 114 110 110 108 102 57 21 DIS DIS