* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 111 113 119 121 124 127 125 123 115 106 100 V (KT) LAND 100 106 111 113 119 121 124 127 125 123 75 43 32 V (KT) LGEM 100 108 114 120 123 127 131 126 119 107 67 39 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 3 9 10 18 21 23 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -8 -5 -4 -6 -2 -8 0 -3 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 202 116 96 102 74 130 191 215 204 236 244 262 274 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 155 153 157 157 153 155 147 145 134 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 139 143 141 144 142 134 133 121 117 107 101 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -50.5 -50.7 -49.7 -49.4 -49.2 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 10 7 9 4 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 49 51 48 51 49 52 54 57 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 26 31 30 34 36 37 40 39 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 20 12 23 10 31 5 13 10 18 20 30 200 MB DIV 7 1 -17 -21 0 -25 23 5 39 27 50 21 16 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -5 0 2 -2 4 -1 9 4 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 974 925 886 871 888 925 799 492 234 34 -71 -166 -247 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.9 26.4 27.8 29.4 31.1 32.7 33.9 34.5 35.2 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.6 61.7 63.2 64.7 67.8 70.9 73.6 76.0 77.6 78.6 79.3 79.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 15 16 16 13 11 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 27 33 43 47 38 34 45 22 13 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 13. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 19. 21. 24. 27. 25. 23. 15. 6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.9 59.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.44 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 705.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.20 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 21.8% 19.7% 16.9% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 27.3% 22.8% 12.6% 7.0% 14.5% 11.9% 2.3% Bayesian: 22.3% 49.3% 33.4% 5.2% 1.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 32.8% 25.3% 11.6% 7.3% 5.6% 4.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 50.0% 53.0% 41.0% 46.0% 17.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 29( 45) 33( 63) 34( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 6( 13) 8( 20) 14( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 106 111 113 119 121 124 127 125 123 75 43 32 18HR AGO 100 99 104 106 112 114 117 120 118 116 68 36 25 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 104 106 109 112 110 108 60 28 17 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 96 98 101 104 102 100 52 20 DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 83 86 89 87 85 37 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 106 97 91 88 89 92 95 93 91 43 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 106 111 102 96 92 95 98 96 94 46 DIS DIS