* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 96 101 103 111 118 122 119 121 115 107 95 V (KT) LAND 85 90 96 101 103 111 118 122 119 121 83 46 33 V (KT) LGEM 85 92 98 104 110 119 126 124 117 108 74 42 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 3 4 5 4 7 11 12 18 24 21 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -5 -7 -5 -8 -4 -6 -9 -2 0 -9 SHEAR DIR 220 227 127 119 119 104 195 195 222 215 232 237 285 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.1 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 153 153 154 155 152 154 142 135 127 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 137 139 140 141 141 136 134 119 110 102 96 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -49.7 -49.1 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 8 10 6 700-500 MB RH 48 52 51 51 49 51 48 49 49 55 56 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 28 26 30 34 37 36 40 40 38 33 850 MB ENV VOR 5 19 21 24 14 22 10 15 3 12 15 31 26 200 MB DIV -19 0 -3 -22 -15 31 -16 29 9 40 55 52 3 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -7 -5 1 2 2 3 2 8 5 0 6 LAND (KM) 1044 994 954 917 903 921 939 616 317 91 -66 -160 -201 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.2 27.3 28.8 30.4 32.2 33.6 34.6 35.2 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.4 59.5 60.5 61.8 63.2 66.3 69.5 72.5 75.1 77.1 78.3 79.1 79.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 16 16 15 13 9 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 37 30 36 38 35 25 44 22 14 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 1. 5. 9. 12. 12. 16. 15. 13. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 18. 26. 33. 37. 35. 36. 30. 22. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 24.8 58.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.22 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 595.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.31 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 23.0% 19.7% 18.1% 14.4% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 10.3% 7.1% 2.1% 0.9% 4.6% 11.0% 3.3% Bayesian: 11.6% 43.6% 23.1% 3.4% 1.0% 5.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 25.6% 16.7% 7.9% 5.4% 8.3% 3.8% 1.1% DTOPS: 46.0% 80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 45.0% 67.0% 71.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 19( 27) 25( 45) 29( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 15( 17) 8( 23) 6( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 90 96 101 103 111 118 122 119 121 83 46 33 18HR AGO 85 84 90 95 97 105 112 116 113 115 77 40 27 12HR AGO 85 82 81 86 88 96 103 107 104 106 68 31 18 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 77 85 92 96 93 95 57 20 DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 74 81 85 82 84 46 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 90 81 75 72 71 78 82 79 81 43 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 90 96 87 81 77 84 88 85 87 49 DIS DIS