* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 91 97 108 113 119 121 120 116 109 98 V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 91 97 108 113 119 121 120 102 58 37 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 86 92 99 112 121 127 124 116 103 54 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 2 3 5 5 5 8 17 21 22 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -2 -5 -7 -5 -5 -5 -9 -5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 207 224 223 122 125 76 137 191 214 213 229 237 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 150 153 152 154 154 155 149 138 130 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 133 136 140 140 141 141 137 127 114 104 100 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -52.6 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 6 9 700-500 MB RH 48 48 52 52 50 50 47 48 48 52 53 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 25 27 31 31 34 36 37 38 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 16 18 23 18 3 17 0 7 3 4 4 200 MB DIV -3 -21 -3 -11 -24 -1 -10 15 13 37 37 55 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 -5 -6 -4 0 0 2 1 6 2 2 6 LAND (KM) 1109 1045 986 940 906 891 919 805 453 192 -14 -109 -151 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.4 27.7 29.4 31.3 32.9 34.1 34.8 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 58.2 59.2 60.3 61.5 64.5 67.6 70.8 74.0 76.4 78.1 78.8 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 15 11 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 32 40 38 32 44 41 39 40 41 26 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 33. 38. 44. 46. 45. 41. 34. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.5 57.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 544.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.36 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 25.5% 20.5% 20.1% 15.6% 19.1% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 30.8% 24.0% 12.1% 9.1% 20.1% 19.0% 8.8% Bayesian: 5.7% 33.2% 11.2% 2.3% 0.9% 8.0% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 9.8% 29.8% 18.6% 11.5% 8.5% 15.7% 11.4% 3.0% DTOPS: 41.0% 75.0% 69.0% 66.0% 41.0% 93.0% 89.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 20( 32) 28( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 85 91 97 108 113 119 121 120 102 58 37 18HR AGO 75 74 79 85 91 102 107 113 115 114 96 52 31 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 83 94 99 105 107 106 88 44 23 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 71 82 87 93 95 94 76 32 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 85 76 70 66 71 77 79 78 60 16 DIS