* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 86 94 104 115 118 119 118 118 112 107 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 86 94 104 115 118 119 118 118 95 52 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 81 87 94 109 119 124 124 121 114 88 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 2 3 4 6 5 11 18 20 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 -6 -7 -4 -6 -6 -7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 259 219 209 206 117 158 110 185 182 217 221 238 242 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 150 151 153 152 155 153 154 149 137 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 132 136 137 140 139 142 137 134 126 114 104 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.0 -51.9 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 8 9 700-500 MB RH 48 47 49 52 53 50 49 47 49 48 50 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 24 26 26 31 31 32 34 37 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 2 12 21 12 15 7 6 -4 -3 -10 1 200 MB DIV 9 -18 -18 -1 -17 -14 25 -24 29 1 48 42 42 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -4 -7 2 1 1 5 0 4 4 -1 LAND (KM) 1152 1094 1038 980 936 878 889 947 696 420 172 -23 -160 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.9 26.9 28.2 29.7 31.3 32.9 34.3 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.5 58.2 59.3 60.5 63.0 66.1 69.2 72.2 74.8 76.7 78.0 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 11 12 13 15 15 14 12 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 33 40 37 33 38 37 26 40 36 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 7. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 24. 34. 45. 48. 49. 48. 48. 42. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 24.4 56.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.20 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.41 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 28.7% 22.4% 21.7% 17.2% 21.6% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 30.8% 26.4% 14.4% 8.6% 15.3% 13.9% 6.6% Bayesian: 5.1% 20.6% 6.5% 1.5% 1.1% 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 9.4% 26.7% 18.4% 12.5% 8.9% 13.6% 9.9% 2.2% DTOPS: 46.0% 82.0% 74.0% 74.0% 39.0% 87.0% 88.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 16( 25) 26( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 10( 11) 10( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 80 86 94 104 115 118 119 118 118 95 52 18HR AGO 70 69 74 80 88 98 109 112 113 112 112 89 46 12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 80 90 101 104 105 104 104 81 38 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 68 78 89 92 93 92 92 69 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT