* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 73 78 84 95 103 110 112 112 114 107 105 V (KT) LAND 65 68 73 78 84 95 103 110 112 112 114 107 73 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 72 76 82 96 111 120 121 119 116 105 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 5 4 3 5 8 9 12 22 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 -2 -6 -7 -5 -3 -8 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 276 303 238 228 229 147 148 185 207 195 204 222 226 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 148 150 153 152 153 154 153 154 140 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 129 131 135 139 139 140 139 137 133 116 108 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.4 -52.6 -51.8 -51.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.2 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 10 11 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 50 52 52 52 48 50 51 54 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 24 27 29 33 34 35 39 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -4 0 6 19 21 9 29 17 17 15 2 200 MB DIV -10 18 -18 -31 -9 -19 11 -9 26 6 36 40 48 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 -1 -4 -6 1 0 6 0 8 7 2 LAND (KM) 1203 1147 1093 1033 979 895 890 898 872 583 275 58 -60 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.5 26.4 27.5 28.7 30.2 32.1 33.6 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.1 56.8 57.5 58.4 59.3 61.7 64.6 67.6 70.7 73.5 76.1 77.6 78.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 10 12 14 14 15 14 12 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 26 34 41 31 44 41 41 30 46 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 16. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 30. 38. 45. 47. 47. 49. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.4 56.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.45 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 25.0% 22.9% 18.1% 16.7% 23.4% 14.6% 18.6% Logistic: 4.8% 19.2% 13.8% 6.3% 4.2% 11.3% 9.1% 7.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 10.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 5.1% 18.4% 13.2% 8.4% 7.1% 12.0% 8.0% 8.6% DTOPS: 14.0% 61.0% 46.0% 39.0% 29.0% 73.0% 91.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 9( 14) 17( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 73 78 84 95 103 110 112 112 114 107 73 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 80 91 99 106 108 108 110 103 69 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 72 83 91 98 100 100 102 95 61 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 61 72 80 87 89 89 91 84 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT