* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 72 77 89 97 104 110 112 110 111 107 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 72 77 89 97 104 110 112 110 111 78 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 68 73 87 104 114 119 119 117 110 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 3 3 6 3 5 6 10 11 19 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -3 0 -6 -7 -6 -5 -4 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 257 279 303 188 186 122 169 148 188 191 206 208 234 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 146 146 148 152 153 151 153 154 157 148 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 128 129 132 138 139 137 139 139 139 126 114 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 8 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 49 50 52 51 50 49 50 52 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 23 26 28 31 34 35 35 39 41 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -6 0 2 17 14 16 16 22 11 17 9 200 MB DIV -37 -5 23 -17 -24 -8 -10 16 -8 41 18 42 41 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -7 0 2 -1 4 3 9 5 LAND (KM) 1260 1208 1156 1102 1052 947 907 901 915 748 439 148 -80 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.9 29.2 30.9 32.8 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.1 56.8 57.6 58.5 60.6 63.4 66.3 69.1 72.1 75.1 77.3 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 14 15 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 23 24 30 35 37 38 41 26 32 30 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 17. 29. 37. 44. 50. 52. 50. 51. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.5 55.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 21.5% 18.2% 17.5% 13.9% 23.9% 15.6% 18.4% Logistic: 3.1% 17.2% 11.9% 5.1% 3.7% 9.1% 7.4% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.7% 14.0% 10.2% 7.6% 5.9% 11.1% 7.7% 8.6% DTOPS: 12.0% 56.0% 46.0% 53.0% 41.0% 81.0% 89.0% 72.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 11( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 66 72 77 89 97 104 110 112 110 111 78 18HR AGO 60 59 63 69 74 86 94 101 107 109 107 108 75 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 67 79 87 94 100 102 100 101 68 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 67 75 82 88 90 88 89 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT