* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 72 77 88 96 103 107 110 111 108 105 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 72 77 88 96 103 107 110 111 108 105 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 70 74 86 101 113 120 122 117 112 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 2 4 2 5 4 3 8 15 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 220 259 270 292 183 148 95 86 179 217 218 219 230 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 146 146 150 153 152 154 153 153 155 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 125 128 129 135 139 139 141 138 135 133 122 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -53.3 -52.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 48 49 53 51 51 48 48 50 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 22 24 27 30 31 33 35 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 -8 -11 -5 8 20 19 12 20 8 0 -2 200 MB DIV -42 -32 3 10 -21 -9 -21 0 -19 35 21 18 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 0 -5 -4 0 -5 6 2 8 7 LAND (KM) 1318 1275 1232 1175 1121 1012 909 888 877 854 560 308 104 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.4 27.4 28.7 30.3 31.8 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.9 55.4 55.9 56.6 57.4 59.3 61.8 64.7 68.0 71.0 73.8 76.0 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 7 8 10 13 14 15 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 22 23 36 30 40 44 39 30 36 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 36. 43. 47. 50. 51. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.6 54.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 21.1% 17.8% 15.7% 12.7% 18.9% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 15.8% 11.0% 4.8% 3.0% 6.6% 8.4% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.7% 13.5% 9.8% 6.9% 5.3% 8.6% 7.5% 3.2% DTOPS: 12.0% 70.0% 56.0% 51.0% 42.0% 88.0% 92.0% 69.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 11( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 72 77 88 96 103 107 110 111 108 105 18HR AGO 60 59 63 68 73 84 92 99 103 106 107 104 101 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 66 77 85 92 96 99 100 97 94 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 66 74 81 85 88 89 86 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT