* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 76 86 95 98 103 108 110 108 104 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 76 86 95 98 103 108 110 108 104 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 70 74 85 98 111 119 122 120 115 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 6 2 4 1 2 4 7 10 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 2 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 -9 SHEAR DIR 235 225 254 277 262 199 108 92 71 239 190 208 216 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 144 146 148 151 152 152 154 153 156 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 123 125 128 131 137 139 141 141 138 137 131 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 49 48 50 52 49 49 48 52 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 22 26 25 28 32 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -8 -5 -10 -11 -1 21 17 17 21 25 12 19 200 MB DIV -6 -34 -36 -3 5 -26 2 -20 23 -12 49 32 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 -7 0 0 2 5 2 3 LAND (KM) 1353 1311 1269 1219 1171 1059 951 871 852 896 704 426 166 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.3 25.9 26.7 27.8 29.2 30.7 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 55.0 55.4 56.0 56.7 58.3 60.4 63.2 66.5 69.9 73.0 75.7 78.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 8 12 14 16 16 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 19 22 28 36 34 36 40 26 32 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 35. 38. 43. 48. 50. 48. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.6 54.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 22.7% 21.6% 15.9% 14.3% 23.1% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 14.5% 10.5% 4.2% 2.3% 6.3% 5.5% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.8% 13.2% 10.9% 6.8% 5.6% 9.9% 8.1% 2.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 18.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 29.0% 65.0% 48.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 10( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 71 76 86 95 98 103 108 110 108 104 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 72 82 91 94 99 104 106 104 100 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 65 75 84 87 92 97 99 97 93 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 65 74 77 82 87 89 87 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT