* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 67 73 80 88 96 100 106 108 107 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 67 73 80 88 96 100 106 108 107 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 67 74 84 98 108 112 115 113 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 6 4 10 11 8 5 10 8 4 6 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 2 0 -3 -1 -6 -4 -3 -5 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 255 268 234 244 256 202 123 117 79 121 180 208 211 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 143 143 146 150 153 152 154 154 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 124 123 125 130 135 139 139 141 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -54.4 -53.4 -52.9 -51.7 -51.8 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 50 49 48 54 50 50 47 49 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 26 30 31 34 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -13 -12 -10 -12 -8 15 24 22 22 31 17 7 200 MB DIV -5 -2 -34 -42 -15 -15 0 -17 13 -11 10 -2 25 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 -2 0 -5 -2 1 -3 3 -1 7 LAND (KM) 1389 1343 1298 1252 1206 1091 979 886 882 871 826 547 287 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.4 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.6 55.2 55.7 56.2 57.7 59.8 62.3 65.2 68.3 71.5 74.3 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 8 11 13 14 15 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 17 20 25 38 29 39 44 34 34 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 11. 14. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 25. 33. 41. 45. 51. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.6 54.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.1% 14.8% 12.3% 10.5% 13.9% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.1% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 1.8% 2.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.6% 5.9% 4.4% 3.6% 5.2% 5.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 12.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 19.0% 45.0% 38.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 64 67 73 80 88 96 100 106 108 107 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 63 69 76 84 92 96 102 104 103 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 63 70 78 86 90 96 98 97 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 54 61 69 77 81 87 89 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT