* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 59 60 66 71 80 87 95 99 105 106 V (KT) LAND 55 55 57 59 60 66 71 80 87 95 99 105 106 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 58 61 66 76 88 99 107 112 113 111 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 6 3 11 7 6 9 5 4 4 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 6 4 -2 0 -5 -3 0 1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 245 261 284 220 235 205 173 110 96 83 233 175 200 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 143 143 146 150 152 151 154 154 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 124 123 124 128 134 138 139 142 141 137 138 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -53.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 50 51 50 52 54 49 50 49 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 20 21 22 25 27 30 30 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -18 -16 -12 -15 -8 1 25 20 21 25 17 -2 200 MB DIV -29 -11 2 -33 -40 9 -14 17 -30 33 -6 15 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 0 1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1416 1362 1309 1266 1223 1122 1017 916 845 836 924 643 358 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.8 28.1 29.6 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 54.4 55.0 55.5 56.0 57.3 59.1 61.3 64.1 67.2 70.5 73.5 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 13 15 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 16 19 26 36 31 41 39 41 27 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 8. 8. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 16. 25. 32. 40. 44. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.6 53.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 11.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.6% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 4.4% 4.2% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 57 59 60 66 71 80 87 95 99 105 106 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 59 65 70 79 86 94 98 104 105 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 60 65 74 81 89 93 99 100 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 52 57 66 73 81 85 91 92 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT