* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 59 63 67 75 80 88 91 98 102 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 59 63 67 75 80 88 91 98 102 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 58 61 67 77 88 98 104 109 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 13 7 10 5 8 10 8 7 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 4 6 2 0 -2 -4 -4 0 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 244 246 263 267 247 220 163 155 87 74 82 179 153 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 142 143 143 146 150 152 152 155 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 123 123 124 124 127 134 137 139 142 141 136 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 44 46 46 48 51 51 54 50 53 51 50 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 20 21 24 26 28 28 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -12 -19 -13 0 -9 2 14 34 26 21 11 0 200 MB DIV 4 -4 -36 -14 -11 -15 10 -21 19 -26 15 -10 29 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -6 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1571 1516 1462 1409 1356 1267 1189 1071 983 958 962 841 540 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.5 26.1 26.9 28.0 29.2 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 52.8 53.4 54.0 54.6 55.7 56.9 58.8 61.1 63.9 67.2 70.5 73.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 10 12 14 16 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 13 14 17 22 30 35 36 43 42 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 7. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 25. 33. 36. 43. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.8 52.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 11.8% 9.1% 9.0% 7.4% 11.0% 9.8% 11.6% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.5% 3.3% 3.2% 2.6% 3.9% 3.6% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 59 63 67 75 80 88 91 98 102 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 58 62 66 74 79 87 90 97 101 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 58 62 70 75 83 86 93 97 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 51 55 63 68 76 79 86 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT