* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 56 57 62 65 71 80 87 96 100 104 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 56 57 62 65 71 80 87 96 100 104 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 54 55 57 62 69 81 94 105 111 114 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 18 17 15 7 5 6 2 5 3 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 4 6 4 3 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 250 258 260 258 256 236 232 183 179 84 134 169 198 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 142 142 143 145 148 152 153 154 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 123 123 122 124 127 130 136 139 140 141 137 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -54.5 -54.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 44 45 47 48 50 51 54 52 51 50 50 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 25 27 30 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -27 -17 -19 -13 -9 -5 11 18 28 18 2 1 200 MB DIV -5 5 -7 -33 -15 -18 -4 -10 -8 -5 6 0 18 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -4 -2 0 -6 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 1654 1580 1507 1456 1405 1304 1222 1157 1091 1028 991 971 633 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 25.1 25.7 26.4 27.1 27.7 29.0 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.1 52.9 53.5 54.1 55.2 56.4 57.8 59.7 62.3 65.6 68.8 71.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 8 11 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 13 13 15 21 23 34 33 33 36 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 7. 10. 16. 25. 32. 41. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.0 51.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.3% 9.3% 6.8% 5.5% 10.4% 8.3% 10.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.8% 3.3% 2.4% 1.9% 3.7% 2.9% 3.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 55 56 57 62 65 71 80 87 96 100 104 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 57 62 65 71 80 87 96 100 104 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 58 61 67 76 83 92 96 100 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 51 54 60 69 76 85 89 93 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT