* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 49 50 52 57 64 72 80 89 98 107 109 V (KT) LAND 55 51 49 50 52 57 64 72 80 89 98 107 109 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 46 45 46 50 57 66 78 91 102 110 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 22 15 13 14 4 4 4 5 5 2 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 2 2 5 2 -2 -3 -1 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 238 244 242 242 246 258 213 224 171 84 63 181 209 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 141 142 143 145 147 150 153 153 157 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 123 123 123 124 124 129 134 138 139 142 138 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -53.7 -53.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 45 48 50 51 52 50 49 46 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 20 21 23 26 28 30 33 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -30 -20 -17 -16 -2 -11 14 27 46 45 30 32 200 MB DIV -2 -4 2 -21 -36 -5 -17 7 -32 25 -14 18 7 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -4 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -5 0 6 7 LAND (KM) 1751 1688 1627 1563 1501 1387 1323 1246 1159 1094 1075 1069 729 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.4 27.2 28.0 29.2 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.1 51.8 52.5 53.2 54.5 55.4 56.7 58.6 61.0 64.0 67.2 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 8 10 13 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 18 17 15 13 16 23 29 45 32 42 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -5. -3. 2. 9. 17. 25. 34. 43. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.1 50.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.34 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.34 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 7.2% 6.2% 5.7% 4.8% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 51 49 50 52 57 64 72 80 89 98 107 109 18HR AGO 55 54 52 53 55 60 67 75 83 92 101 110 112 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 59 66 74 82 91 100 109 111 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 52 59 67 75 84 93 102 104 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT