* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 50 50 52 57 64 69 82 92 102 111 112 V (KT) LAND 60 53 50 50 52 57 64 69 82 92 102 111 112 V (KT) LGEM 60 51 47 46 46 49 56 64 75 89 101 108 111 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 22 16 16 9 3 1 4 1 5 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 2 3 0 4 0 3 -5 -2 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 235 240 248 240 240 254 186 199 158 155 158 153 201 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 141 141 143 145 146 149 150 153 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 121 122 122 124 125 127 130 133 137 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 45 45 49 51 53 50 50 47 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 19 20 21 24 24 29 30 33 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -37 -33 -26 -18 -14 0 0 20 41 52 39 20 200 MB DIV 5 -2 -5 4 -15 -7 -10 3 0 1 7 19 21 700-850 TADV 2 4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 5 2 LAND (KM) 1831 1774 1718 1652 1586 1485 1388 1308 1264 1212 1166 1180 903 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.3 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.2 50.9 51.6 52.3 53.5 54.7 56.0 57.4 59.3 61.9 64.9 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 7 8 11 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 23 20 18 14 13 20 25 30 40 30 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -10. -10. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 11. 12. 15. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -10. -8. -3. 4. 9. 22. 32. 42. 51. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.0 49.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.22 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.37 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.28 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 53 50 50 52 57 64 69 82 92 102 111 112 18HR AGO 60 59 56 56 58 63 70 75 88 98 108 117 118 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 58 63 70 75 88 98 108 117 118 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 57 64 69 82 92 102 111 112 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT