* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 64 63 64 68 75 80 90 98 105 112 111 V (KT) LAND 75 67 64 63 64 68 75 80 90 98 105 112 111 V (KT) LGEM 75 67 64 62 63 66 72 80 89 97 102 106 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 24 20 13 8 3 1 7 10 9 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 4 3 2 3 -1 2 -3 -4 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 229 231 235 239 238 222 79 166 215 205 145 149 117 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 140 141 142 144 145 146 147 150 151 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 122 122 123 125 125 126 127 132 134 137 140 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.2 1.9 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 45 44 46 49 50 51 51 51 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 22 24 27 27 31 32 33 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -31 -32 -29 -24 -18 -1 2 19 42 79 67 57 200 MB DIV 40 5 -1 3 10 -33 21 -4 47 -3 51 -12 47 700-850 TADV 10 3 2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 1852 1793 1737 1673 1611 1502 1390 1307 1278 1248 1237 1225 1050 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.7 27.5 28.6 29.3 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.0 50.8 51.5 52.2 53.5 54.9 56.1 57.2 58.7 60.9 63.6 66.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 26 25 21 15 14 20 24 29 38 31 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 13. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -11. -12. -11. -7. 0. 5. 15. 23. 30. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.8 49.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.28 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 679.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.16 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 3( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 67 64 63 64 68 75 80 90 98 105 112 111 18HR AGO 75 74 71 70 71 75 82 87 97 105 112 119 118 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 71 75 82 87 97 105 112 119 118 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 70 77 82 92 100 107 114 113 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT