* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 76 72 71 73 74 78 86 95 106 110 113 V (KT) LAND 90 82 76 72 71 73 74 78 86 95 106 110 113 V (KT) LGEM 90 82 77 74 74 75 78 84 93 100 105 108 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 22 25 22 9 6 7 4 9 7 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 9 0 0 5 1 -5 -1 -4 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 227 225 225 248 254 213 229 131 191 166 144 130 95 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 137 140 141 142 144 145 147 149 150 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 121 122 122 123 124 125 127 130 132 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 46 47 47 50 50 53 52 54 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 22 24 25 26 29 32 37 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -30 -30 -31 -32 -14 -12 3 14 38 56 79 83 200 MB DIV 67 46 25 0 -5 -13 1 13 16 34 33 17 44 700-850 TADV 12 7 2 3 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1934 1861 1793 1732 1673 1549 1442 1354 1283 1233 1188 1180 1196 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.9 27.6 28.5 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 48.2 49.1 50.0 50.8 51.5 52.9 54.2 55.5 56.7 58.1 59.9 62.1 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 27 23 25 17 13 17 23 30 32 39 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -9. -4. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -19. -17. -16. -12. -4. 5. 16. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.4 48.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.34 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 806.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 5( 16) 4( 20) 4( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 82 76 72 71 73 74 78 86 95 106 110 113 18HR AGO 90 89 83 79 78 80 81 85 93 102 113 117 120 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 81 83 84 88 96 105 116 120 123 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 81 82 86 94 103 114 118 121 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 73 74 78 86 95 106 110 113 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT