* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 86 81 77 76 77 78 85 92 102 109 108 V (KT) LAND 100 92 86 81 77 76 77 78 85 92 102 109 108 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 87 83 81 80 82 85 92 100 104 107 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 24 22 25 12 12 3 5 7 13 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 4 1 6 1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 245 238 237 231 243 240 236 186 202 198 188 151 130 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 137 140 143 144 145 147 148 150 150 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 119 121 123 125 124 125 126 127 130 132 137 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -52.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 49 48 47 50 52 53 54 54 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 19 19 19 22 23 24 27 29 34 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -32 -32 -37 -28 -19 -6 0 23 36 71 68 200 MB DIV 24 42 33 10 -13 20 -28 18 -1 43 -6 51 14 700-850 TADV 17 7 6 3 5 1 0 0 1 -2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1974 1914 1858 1796 1737 1598 1488 1401 1320 1280 1266 1245 1261 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.4 49.1 49.9 50.7 52.4 53.8 55.0 56.3 57.4 58.7 60.7 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 31 27 23 22 15 14 21 23 28 37 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -15. -9. -4. 0. 3. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -23. -24. -23. -22. -15. -8. 2. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.8 47.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 879.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.01 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 92 86 81 77 76 77 78 85 92 102 109 108 18HR AGO 100 99 93 88 84 83 84 85 92 99 109 116 115 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 87 86 87 88 95 102 112 119 118 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 85 86 87 94 101 111 118 117 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 81 82 89 96 106 113 112 IN 6HR 100 92 83 77 74 73 74 75 82 89 99 106 105 IN 12HR 100 92 86 77 71 67 68 69 76 83 93 100 99