* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 102 95 86 80 77 77 81 80 85 93 97 V (KT) LAND 115 110 102 95 86 80 77 77 81 80 85 93 97 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 104 97 92 87 87 89 93 97 100 104 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 23 21 24 20 12 10 10 12 10 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 9 6 5 5 2 1 -2 -1 -3 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 233 245 239 234 231 249 231 244 206 204 184 173 208 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 135 137 141 144 145 146 146 149 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 118 120 121 124 124 125 125 125 128 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 46 48 50 49 49 47 49 52 52 55 54 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 16 20 20 22 26 26 29 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -27 -39 -32 -31 -34 -20 -12 4 9 37 63 58 200 MB DIV 32 16 26 28 2 6 2 -5 3 5 6 5 2 700-850 TADV 12 13 11 6 2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2026 1949 1875 1821 1770 1632 1519 1436 1367 1328 1310 1320 1356 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.5 28.5 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 47.8 48.7 49.4 50.2 51.9 53.3 54.5 55.6 56.6 57.7 59.0 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 26 27 24 23 17 13 17 21 25 29 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -19. -27. -35. -41. -46. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -14. -18. -22. -19. -14. -8. -4. 1. 4. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -1. -2. -1. 3. 3. 6. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -20. -29. -35. -38. -38. -34. -35. -30. -22. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.1 46.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1019.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 110 102 95 86 80 77 77 81 80 85 93 97 18HR AGO 115 114 106 99 90 84 81 81 85 84 89 97 101 12HR AGO 115 112 111 104 95 89 86 86 90 89 94 102 106 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 96 90 87 87 91 90 95 103 107 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 90 87 87 91 90 95 103 107 IN 6HR 115 110 101 95 92 89 86 86 90 89 94 102 106 IN 12HR 115 110 102 93 87 83 80 80 84 83 88 96 100