* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 107 99 91 83 81 83 82 83 88 92 95 V (KT) LAND 115 113 107 99 91 83 81 83 82 83 88 92 95 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 110 102 96 89 87 89 91 96 101 104 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 22 22 21 21 11 11 7 12 13 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 12 10 6 3 3 4 -2 0 -6 -7 2 SHEAR DIR 228 227 236 236 227 240 255 225 176 196 152 151 179 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 134 136 140 142 143 145 147 148 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 118 119 121 122 124 124 125 126 126 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -53.7 -53.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.6 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 48 47 48 47 50 52 55 55 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 20 18 21 21 25 25 29 34 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -8 -22 -28 -31 -34 -25 -14 -5 7 27 51 60 200 MB DIV 33 34 13 24 29 -9 22 -9 20 8 32 -8 47 700-850 TADV 19 14 15 9 4 2 2 0 0 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2036 1992 1906 1843 1783 1663 1547 1451 1384 1343 1331 1331 1355 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.9 27.6 28.3 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.2 48.2 49.0 49.8 51.4 52.8 54.1 55.3 56.5 57.5 58.5 59.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 25 22 20 18 14 15 21 24 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -27. -35. -41. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -16. -20. -18. -12. -6. -2. 2. 5. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 2. 6. 11. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -16. -24. -32. -34. -32. -33. -32. -27. -23. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 22.4 46.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1052.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 107 99 91 83 81 83 82 83 88 92 95 18HR AGO 115 114 108 100 92 84 82 84 83 84 89 93 96 12HR AGO 115 112 111 103 95 87 85 87 86 87 92 96 99 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 97 89 87 89 88 89 94 98 101 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 86 88 87 88 93 97 100 IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 91 89 91 90 91 96 100 103 IN 12HR 115 113 107 98 92 88 86 88 87 88 93 97 100