* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 97 90 85 77 71 69 68 69 74 80 86 V (KT) LAND 105 104 97 90 85 77 71 69 68 69 74 80 86 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 101 95 90 82 78 77 78 81 87 92 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 24 25 22 21 21 18 15 14 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 6 9 7 3 4 2 0 -1 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 239 230 238 246 240 228 265 236 267 204 203 185 189 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 129 131 132 137 141 144 145 147 147 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 117 119 119 121 123 125 125 126 126 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 48 50 51 50 50 53 53 57 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 21 23 25 29 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 17 -2 -5 -21 -25 -35 -35 -22 -21 0 9 37 72 200 MB DIV 10 22 27 10 30 6 1 7 5 3 33 8 27 700-850 TADV 22 17 14 9 8 13 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2014 2019 1984 1913 1833 1702 1604 1508 1415 1366 1367 1376 1416 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.6 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.4 27.3 28.2 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.2 47.1 48.1 49.0 50.7 52.0 53.3 54.6 55.7 56.6 57.6 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 7 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 19 22 22 18 18 17 14 18 22 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -19. -15. -12. -7. -4. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -8. -15. -20. -28. -34. -36. -37. -36. -31. -25. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 21.7 45.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 900.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 97 90 85 77 71 69 68 69 74 80 86 18HR AGO 105 104 97 90 85 77 71 69 68 69 74 80 86 12HR AGO 105 102 101 94 89 81 75 73 72 73 78 84 90 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 90 82 76 74 73 74 79 85 91 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 78 72 70 69 70 75 81 87 IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 83 77 75 74 75 80 86 92 IN 12HR 105 104 97 88 82 78 72 70 69 70 75 81 87