* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 81 76 70 65 62 63 64 69 74 81 V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 81 76 70 65 62 63 64 69 74 81 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 89 85 81 75 71 70 72 77 82 87 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 20 23 27 18 22 15 19 14 20 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 8 7 7 11 3 5 1 -1 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 251 243 239 236 237 225 248 252 245 227 219 205 215 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 128 130 132 136 141 142 145 147 148 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 115 117 119 119 121 123 124 125 126 126 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 47 49 48 48 49 51 53 51 53 54 54 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 22 24 27 30 35 850 MB ENV VOR 28 16 -1 -7 -17 -36 -35 -32 -23 -15 -14 20 44 200 MB DIV 9 26 29 20 15 24 -18 25 -5 12 -2 26 -19 700-850 TADV 15 18 17 15 12 7 3 -1 0 0 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 1997 2000 1998 1960 1881 1751 1659 1574 1502 1455 1442 1457 1494 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.3 24.4 25.3 25.9 26.4 27.0 27.9 28.7 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.4 46.5 47.4 48.4 50.1 51.5 52.8 54.0 55.1 56.2 57.0 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 17 19 22 18 20 21 16 17 21 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -14. -11. -8. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 3. 6. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -14. -20. -25. -28. -27. -26. -21. -16. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.1 44.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 762.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 86 81 76 70 65 62 63 64 69 74 81 18HR AGO 90 89 86 81 76 70 65 62 63 64 69 74 81 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 76 70 65 62 63 64 69 74 81 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 69 64 61 62 63 68 73 80 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 65 60 57 58 59 64 69 76 IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 68 63 60 61 62 67 72 79 IN 12HR 90 89 86 77 71 67 62 59 60 61 66 71 78