* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 83 79 76 68 63 58 57 55 55 65 70 V (KT) LAND 85 86 83 79 76 68 63 58 57 55 55 65 70 V (KT) LGEM 85 89 88 84 80 73 67 64 64 64 66 72 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 23 22 23 26 22 26 20 21 18 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 5 6 7 8 6 2 3 0 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 238 254 253 248 234 247 247 267 255 252 230 222 213 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 124 128 130 134 137 142 144 147 148 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 113 115 117 119 120 122 124 124 125 126 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 48 50 50 51 53 54 55 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 20 20 19 19 20 21 20 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 47 29 17 -2 -8 -26 -37 -44 -33 -29 -27 6 52 200 MB DIV 11 10 12 14 16 27 -4 7 8 3 -3 20 1 700-850 TADV 21 18 18 14 21 9 4 -1 -3 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1976 1975 1981 1991 1953 1814 1697 1619 1563 1525 1520 1550 1606 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.7 24.7 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.9 28.9 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.4 45.5 46.4 47.4 49.2 50.8 52.1 53.2 54.2 55.1 55.8 56.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 17 16 18 21 18 21 21 17 21 29 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -11. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -6. -9. -17. -22. -27. -28. -30. -30. -20. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.4 43.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 703.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 15.1% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 3.4% 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 6.3% 5.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 83 79 76 68 63 58 57 55 55 65 70 18HR AGO 85 84 81 77 74 66 61 56 55 53 53 63 68 12HR AGO 85 82 81 77 74 66 61 56 55 53 53 63 68 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 64 59 54 53 51 51 61 66 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 58 53 48 47 45 45 55 60 IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 65 60 55 54 52 52 62 67 IN 12HR 85 86 83 74 68 64 59 54 53 51 51 61 66