* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 74 71 67 63 60 57 58 64 70 73 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 74 71 67 63 60 57 58 64 70 73 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 79 77 74 69 66 64 64 67 72 79 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 22 21 18 21 11 23 15 16 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 1 4 9 9 14 3 4 0 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 240 237 251 252 241 238 233 259 250 235 193 203 164 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 123 126 128 133 138 141 144 147 149 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 113 114 116 117 121 123 123 125 128 127 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 49 48 49 51 52 51 52 54 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 19 20 19 19 20 21 24 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 33 20 2 -11 -29 -40 -34 -27 -22 -7 51 200 MB DIV 16 1 -4 5 14 16 33 -24 27 0 24 0 32 700-850 TADV 14 21 22 19 11 13 6 5 1 3 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 1979 1959 1948 1954 1943 1826 1700 1622 1568 1532 1529 1556 1600 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.5 22.0 23.1 24.3 25.3 26.1 27.1 28.2 29.2 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.8 44.9 45.9 47.0 48.9 50.6 51.9 53.0 54.2 55.3 56.1 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 13 16 14 22 15 19 21 17 23 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -17. -11. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.0 42.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 591.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.31 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 16.3% 14.0% 12.1% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 3.9% 2.2% 1.8% 1.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 7.2% 5.5% 4.7% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 19.0% 15.0% 13.0% 13.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 76 74 71 67 63 60 57 58 64 70 73 18HR AGO 75 74 74 72 69 65 61 58 55 56 62 68 71 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 66 62 58 55 52 53 59 65 68 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 58 54 51 48 49 55 61 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT