* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 63 62 58 54 50 46 49 52 58 65 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 63 62 58 54 50 46 49 52 58 65 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 64 62 59 56 54 52 54 57 64 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 22 22 23 22 24 26 18 12 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 3 6 2 12 5 5 0 -1 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 244 249 244 243 244 246 255 263 273 244 266 202 186 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 121 123 126 132 137 140 144 146 149 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 111 112 114 116 122 124 124 126 126 128 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 51 50 48 50 54 56 56 56 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 20 18 18 17 17 19 20 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR 63 52 48 39 20 0 -21 -26 -34 -27 -22 -8 26 200 MB DIV 15 7 0 0 8 2 37 -7 6 11 6 2 1 700-850 TADV 17 15 15 17 19 11 7 7 1 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1977 1950 1929 1927 1927 1845 1671 1566 1519 1482 1461 1473 1505 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.6 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.1 44.1 45.1 46.2 48.5 50.6 52.2 53.3 54.4 55.5 56.6 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 11 13 14 22 12 16 19 15 19 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -6. -6. -4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -16. -13. -7. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.5 42.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.44 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 14.6% 12.4% 11.2% 9.8% 10.2% 6.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% 4.1% 2.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 63 62 58 54 50 46 49 52 58 65 18HR AGO 65 64 64 62 61 57 53 49 45 48 51 57 64 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 54 50 46 42 45 48 54 61 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 50 46 42 38 41 44 50 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT