* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 60 59 55 52 50 49 48 51 54 60 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 60 59 55 52 50 49 48 51 54 60 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 61 59 55 53 51 50 51 53 58 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 16 19 23 19 20 17 21 15 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 9 5 8 5 10 7 5 4 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 224 232 244 245 240 249 252 259 266 272 250 259 214 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 120 120 122 129 133 137 142 145 147 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 112 112 114 120 123 124 127 128 128 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 50 51 50 50 51 54 56 57 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 19 19 17 16 17 18 18 19 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 91 78 68 60 56 34 4 -16 -25 -25 -26 -23 -7 200 MB DIV 21 22 11 -7 -17 -4 13 46 5 -1 -8 4 13 700-850 TADV 9 12 19 17 16 8 11 5 8 9 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 2017 1960 1909 1873 1845 1842 1731 1563 1442 1382 1365 1364 1361 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.9 22.1 23.2 24.2 25.4 26.6 27.6 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.6 42.8 43.9 45.0 47.2 49.6 51.6 53.3 54.7 55.9 57.0 58.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 5 8 0 0 0 8 16 17 19 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -9. -6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.7 40.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.3% 13.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 3.4% 2.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.3% 4.8% 4.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 60 59 55 52 50 49 48 51 54 60 18HR AGO 60 59 60 58 57 53 50 48 47 46 49 52 58 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 53 49 46 44 43 42 45 48 54 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 45 42 40 39 38 41 44 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT