* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 56 55 54 51 51 50 55 59 67 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 56 55 54 51 51 50 55 59 67 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 57 55 53 51 51 53 56 61 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 16 14 19 14 17 12 20 12 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 6 8 4 12 8 11 8 6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 221 225 236 243 241 240 237 251 270 276 277 251 158 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 121 120 125 131 136 139 143 146 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 112 113 113 116 122 125 125 126 127 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 52 51 52 49 51 53 52 53 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 19 19 19 17 18 18 21 23 27 850 MB ENV VOR 96 89 79 69 62 51 23 2 -19 -26 -26 -22 -8 200 MB DIV 31 23 19 7 -2 -1 43 25 49 10 22 6 42 700-850 TADV 11 12 14 14 12 13 14 14 12 7 8 3 1 LAND (KM) 2071 2007 1941 1893 1854 1833 1773 1608 1458 1366 1340 1291 1245 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.4 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.4 41.5 42.7 43.9 46.1 48.5 50.9 52.8 54.3 55.2 56.7 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 4 6 3 6 0 3 2 14 17 18 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -7. -4. -3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. 0. 4. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 39.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.56 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.7% 13.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% Logistic: 1.9% 3.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.7% 5.0% 4.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 3.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 15.0% 11.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 57 58 56 55 54 51 51 50 55 59 67 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 54 53 52 49 49 48 53 57 65 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 50 49 48 45 45 44 49 53 61 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 42 41 38 38 37 42 46 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT