* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 62 63 61 56 53 49 47 46 45 49 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 62 63 61 56 53 49 47 46 45 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 63 63 61 57 54 52 52 53 53 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 17 17 20 24 19 23 19 23 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 5 5 4 7 9 8 9 6 0 SHEAR DIR 230 233 237 249 250 246 257 258 275 271 283 275 285 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 118 119 120 122 128 134 138 142 144 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 112 111 112 114 120 124 126 126 126 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 54 52 52 49 49 50 51 54 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 19 17 16 15 16 16 16 19 850 MB ENV VOR 108 95 91 79 70 59 30 12 -17 -32 -27 -24 -17 200 MB DIV 14 25 13 23 22 -2 19 35 23 9 16 8 19 700-850 TADV 12 10 5 6 13 18 7 11 7 6 12 5 8 LAND (KM) 2146 2065 1988 1938 1894 1825 1799 1701 1521 1405 1347 1285 1241 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.7 23.1 24.2 25.1 25.8 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.3 40.7 41.8 42.9 45.2 47.5 49.8 52.0 53.7 54.9 56.2 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 5 6 4 0 0 0 10 16 17 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.3 38.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.57 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 20.7% 17.3% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 13.5% 8.4% 6.0% 3.5% 7.9% 4.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 11.0% 9.2% 2.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 14.4% 9.5% 7.3% 1.3% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 11.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 61 62 63 61 56 53 49 47 46 45 49 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 58 56 51 48 44 42 41 40 44 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 51 46 43 39 37 36 35 39 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 44 39 36 32 30 29 28 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT