* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 54 54 55 53 50 49 50 51 52 55 V (KT) LAND 50 53 54 54 54 55 53 50 49 50 51 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 54 53 52 50 50 50 52 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 14 17 14 18 12 16 13 16 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 3 2 5 4 9 8 10 7 6 1 SHEAR DIR 234 223 224 223 234 237 235 244 250 260 262 281 267 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 116 116 117 120 123 128 133 137 142 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 109 110 110 112 114 119 123 125 128 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 55 53 51 51 49 49 49 50 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 20 19 20 20 18 18 19 19 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 113 107 99 90 78 65 46 22 5 -11 -20 -16 -13 200 MB DIV 13 20 29 28 14 5 12 45 24 43 21 20 8 700-850 TADV 11 16 15 8 6 13 15 9 15 7 7 6 3 LAND (KM) 2065 2137 2062 2000 1936 1839 1803 1755 1623 1446 1317 1242 1209 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.8 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.9 39.2 40.4 41.7 44.0 46.1 48.3 50.6 52.7 54.5 56.0 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 11 12 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 5 3 2 8 7 14 18 21 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.9 36.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.2% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.9% 2.9% 2.3% 1.5% 5.7% 3.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 6.9% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 8.6% 5.8% 0.8% 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 54 54 54 55 53 50 49 50 51 52 55 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 50 51 49 46 45 46 47 48 51 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 47 45 42 41 42 43 44 47 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 39 36 35 36 37 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT