* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 48 47 45 41 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 48 48 47 45 41 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 46 45 43 40 38 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 15 20 20 21 26 21 23 21 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 2 0 2 3 5 7 9 5 5 2 SHEAR DIR 234 241 237 235 238 254 238 249 246 256 254 266 246 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 116 116 118 123 127 130 134 140 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 109 109 109 110 114 117 118 122 127 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 56 55 54 53 52 50 52 51 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 20 17 17 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 122 113 109 100 96 69 58 34 12 -21 -25 -38 -27 200 MB DIV 8 12 14 26 17 8 -2 26 12 24 7 -1 4 700-850 TADV 9 8 13 13 9 13 17 15 13 10 0 1 -3 LAND (KM) 1917 2068 2146 2077 2012 1913 1879 1867 1770 1629 1498 1376 1283 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.2 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.8 24.0 25.3 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.6 38.0 39.3 40.6 42.6 44.9 47.1 49.0 50.8 52.6 54.7 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 9 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 5 15 9 14 19 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -6. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 35.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% Logistic: 1.9% 4.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 4.7% 3.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.0% 4.3% 0.6% 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 2.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 48 48 47 45 41 39 40 41 43 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 46 46 45 43 39 37 38 39 41 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 42 41 39 35 33 34 35 37 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 34 32 28 26 27 28 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT