* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 44 45 47 48 53 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 44 45 47 48 53 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 43 43 42 41 40 40 41 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 14 13 19 15 21 12 18 14 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 3 10 6 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 234 233 230 241 237 235 226 237 249 258 271 270 292 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 115 116 117 120 124 128 133 135 140 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 110 110 109 109 112 115 118 122 122 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 56 54 54 51 50 48 47 46 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 22 21 21 19 19 18 18 18 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 128 124 115 112 106 87 66 47 29 9 -2 -25 -28 200 MB DIV -1 5 17 14 18 6 22 16 26 19 42 -3 25 700-850 TADV 7 8 7 13 12 10 16 17 13 16 8 4 2 LAND (KM) 1771 1927 2083 2095 2018 1912 1835 1808 1778 1676 1511 1396 1306 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.9 21.9 22.8 23.8 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 33.9 35.3 36.8 38.2 39.6 41.8 43.9 46.0 48.1 50.1 52.0 53.6 55.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 12 10 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 8 7 12 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.1 33.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.4% 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 44 45 47 48 53 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 44 45 47 48 53 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 42 41 41 41 42 44 45 50 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 35 35 35 36 38 39 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT