* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 50 49 48 49 50 53 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 50 49 48 49 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 47 46 45 46 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 8 10 17 18 19 23 15 17 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 0 2 2 3 7 9 6 3 SHEAR DIR 264 260 225 219 227 231 240 218 248 238 265 249 282 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 114 115 115 116 118 121 126 130 134 138 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 109 110 109 110 110 112 116 119 121 124 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 57 54 52 51 48 49 48 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 18 18 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 124 124 122 117 112 99 70 53 21 11 -9 -11 -26 200 MB DIV 11 -2 0 18 13 5 -4 11 19 35 31 17 22 700-850 TADV 7 6 6 7 13 14 16 20 15 15 14 6 5 LAND (KM) 1609 1760 1910 2061 2106 1969 1873 1835 1840 1778 1621 1487 1389 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.5 23.5 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.4 33.8 35.2 36.6 38.0 40.6 42.8 44.8 46.8 48.8 50.8 52.5 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 3 15 9 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 32.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.9% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 50 49 48 49 50 53 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 48 47 46 47 48 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 44 45 44 43 42 43 44 47 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 38 37 36 35 36 37 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT