* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 59 60 62 60 58 56 53 53 53 54 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 59 60 62 60 58 56 53 53 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 60 60 60 58 57 57 57 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 5 6 7 9 16 12 17 12 17 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 3 2 3 1 5 5 10 6 10 6 SHEAR DIR 271 260 266 231 224 233 236 229 241 257 270 271 251 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 114 114 116 117 119 122 129 133 136 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 110 108 108 109 110 111 114 120 123 122 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 63 57 57 54 51 47 47 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 22 22 22 21 20 20 19 19 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 122 121 122 118 114 100 79 51 40 25 -8 -26 -48 200 MB DIV 24 15 9 7 7 5 0 7 15 40 22 34 6 700-850 TADV 1 7 5 4 9 18 18 21 19 13 15 9 10 LAND (KM) 1423 1575 1727 1868 2008 2064 1968 1895 1835 1826 1706 1577 1498 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.0 21.0 22.3 23.6 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.1 33.5 34.8 36.1 38.8 41.1 43.2 45.4 47.6 49.9 51.6 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 7 14 13 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. 3. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 30.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.66 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 21.5% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 15.7% 9.4% 6.8% 4.2% 10.7% 4.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 5.3% 9.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 15.6% 10.1% 2.5% 1.6% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 16.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 57 59 60 62 60 58 56 53 53 53 54 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 55 57 55 53 51 48 48 48 49 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 51 49 47 45 42 42 42 43 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 41 39 37 34 34 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT