* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 61 65 67 64 62 58 56 52 49 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 61 65 67 64 62 58 56 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 53 57 59 62 63 63 62 60 58 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 10 9 16 18 24 19 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 0 2 0 6 2 8 9 8 6 6 SHEAR DIR 172 240 299 239 228 253 220 248 240 255 255 269 255 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 114 115 115 115 116 118 122 126 130 134 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 110 111 110 109 109 111 113 117 120 121 124 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 63 64 64 62 58 57 56 56 54 52 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 22 23 23 21 22 22 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 122 120 119 123 124 112 96 58 53 24 6 -21 -21 200 MB DIV 44 25 28 20 15 4 27 6 7 -5 19 25 27 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 2 2 12 17 19 27 23 14 13 3 LAND (KM) 1291 1432 1573 1725 1877 2127 1998 1912 1875 1874 1785 1622 1503 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.0 21.9 22.9 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 29.5 30.8 32.1 33.5 34.9 37.6 39.9 42.2 44.4 46.7 48.9 50.9 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 4 20 11 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 19. 17. 13. 11. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 29.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 24.1% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 24.8% 13.8% 9.2% 6.7% 18.4% 8.6% 4.1% Bayesian: 9.5% 24.0% 7.1% 1.8% 1.4% 4.7% 2.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 24.3% 13.4% 3.7% 2.7% 7.7% 3.6% 1.4% DTOPS: 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 58 61 65 67 64 62 58 56 52 49 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 59 61 58 56 52 50 46 43 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 52 54 51 49 45 43 39 36 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 44 41 39 35 33 29 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT