* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 54 58 59 60 58 54 51 47 45 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 54 58 59 60 58 54 51 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 51 55 58 58 56 54 50 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 2 2 3 4 13 16 19 26 24 28 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 4 6 7 9 5 10 SHEAR DIR 149 151 218 295 222 229 263 251 255 238 242 238 234 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 115 114 115 115 115 118 120 124 128 132 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 111 110 109 109 109 111 112 114 116 120 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 63 64 61 58 58 55 55 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 23 21 22 21 23 22 21 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 113 117 118 122 127 114 98 65 48 20 5 -16 -36 200 MB DIV 53 55 39 33 34 6 -7 13 19 -3 15 22 25 700-850 TADV -3 0 3 4 2 8 19 21 25 28 26 23 13 LAND (KM) 1161 1302 1443 1590 1737 2004 2079 1987 1939 1931 1927 1831 1702 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.1 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.3 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.6 30.9 32.3 33.6 36.1 38.6 41.2 43.4 45.5 47.2 48.9 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 5 8 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 18. 19. 20. 18. 14. 11. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.4 28.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 21.7% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 30.1% 15.5% 8.4% 7.3% 19.0% 10.0% 3.0% Bayesian: 5.4% 22.5% 6.6% 1.0% 0.9% 4.5% 3.6% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 24.8% 13.5% 3.1% 2.7% 7.8% 4.5% 1.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/01/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 52 54 58 59 60 58 54 51 47 45 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 49 53 54 55 53 49 46 42 40 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 46 47 48 46 42 39 35 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 37 38 36 32 29 25 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT