* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 52 57 61 63 65 63 61 57 53 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 52 57 61 63 65 63 61 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 59 63 64 62 59 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 2 1 2 6 9 17 17 25 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 2 2 6 2 5 3 9 10 10 6 SHEAR DIR 96 114 116 160 31 204 264 251 259 250 251 241 246 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 116 115 115 115 117 118 121 126 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 115 111 110 110 109 111 110 112 116 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 67 67 62 58 56 52 52 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 23 24 23 24 23 25 24 23 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 98 106 113 119 123 121 106 95 69 62 29 12 -15 200 MB DIV 43 43 49 43 41 31 -5 18 20 4 16 14 8 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 0 0 7 16 14 19 25 26 24 16 LAND (KM) 1054 1187 1321 1456 1591 1873 2111 1993 1916 1909 1957 1941 1840 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.3 21.6 22.9 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.3 28.5 29.8 31.0 32.3 34.9 37.5 40.1 42.4 44.5 46.2 47.7 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 7 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 29. 26. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 27.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 21.8% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 30.3% 16.1% 7.2% 5.5% 15.6% 8.8% 4.3% Bayesian: 4.3% 20.8% 4.5% 0.9% 0.7% 6.0% 3.5% 0.1% Consensus: 6.7% 24.3% 13.0% 2.7% 2.1% 7.2% 4.1% 1.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 19.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/01/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 52 57 61 63 65 63 61 57 53 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 47 52 56 58 60 58 56 52 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 45 49 51 53 51 49 45 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 35 39 41 43 41 39 35 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT