* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 09/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 57 61 63 65 64 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 57 61 63 65 64 60 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 46 52 58 61 63 61 59 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 7 6 3 3 2 11 13 13 19 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 1 -1 -1 3 4 3 6 11 6 11 11 SHEAR DIR 98 118 107 135 161 302 246 265 247 244 244 245 240 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 122 118 115 115 115 115 118 120 124 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 118 114 111 110 109 108 111 112 114 115 117 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 67 68 64 61 56 55 51 52 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 23 23 23 25 24 25 25 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 80 95 102 109 118 123 112 95 84 58 35 9 -4 200 MB DIV 25 31 30 53 41 25 24 14 16 -1 -13 38 34 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 0 1 6 10 18 17 21 20 18 21 LAND (KM) 927 1059 1192 1332 1473 1766 2027 2080 1978 1929 1945 1972 1929 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 22.3 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 26.1 27.4 28.6 29.9 31.2 33.9 36.3 38.7 41.2 43.4 45.4 46.9 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 6 10 15 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 26. 28. 30. 29. 25. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 26.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 09/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 25.6% 19.7% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.2% 37.4% 21.8% 8.7% 7.4% 22.0% 17.8% 6.7% Bayesian: 7.2% 31.2% 8.1% 1.0% 0.7% 8.7% 3.4% 0.3% Consensus: 9.9% 31.4% 16.5% 7.6% 2.7% 10.2% 7.1% 2.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 09/01/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 51 57 61 63 65 64 60 59 57 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 52 56 58 60 59 55 54 52 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 45 49 51 53 52 48 47 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 39 41 43 42 38 37 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT