* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 52 58 65 66 69 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 52 58 65 66 69 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 38 43 50 56 57 56 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 12 10 3 4 2 2 6 13 20 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 6 0 1 3 4 4 -1 5 9 SHEAR DIR 49 82 122 123 77 73 310 240 239 234 254 252 243 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 131 128 124 118 115 115 115 116 118 122 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 129 126 121 114 110 110 109 110 110 113 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 72 70 70 67 65 61 55 52 51 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 21 20 21 21 24 22 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 76 65 63 79 97 123 131 122 117 106 84 59 32 200 MB DIV 20 20 28 32 35 26 13 10 27 17 12 5 18 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 -2 -3 -3 2 3 11 11 11 16 17 LAND (KM) 516 628 745 888 1031 1311 1592 1873 2104 2000 1944 1939 1996 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.2 20.4 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 22.1 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.1 29.7 32.3 34.9 37.6 40.0 42.1 44.1 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 9 3 1 1 0 0 0 5 5 10 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 28. 35. 36. 39. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 22.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 17.1% 14.0% 9.0% 7.0% 11.2% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 12.8% 6.8% 1.7% 1.1% 3.3% 3.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.6% 10.6% 7.1% 3.6% 2.7% 5.0% 5.4% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/31/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 45 52 58 65 66 69 70 68 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 50 56 63 64 67 68 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 45 51 58 59 62 63 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 43 50 51 54 55 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT