* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 41 46 51 58 61 62 65 67 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 41 46 51 58 61 62 65 67 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 42 46 50 53 55 56 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 9 10 9 11 9 6 7 10 14 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 5 0 -4 0 0 1 2 8 4 SHEAR DIR 63 64 98 133 135 102 145 132 191 228 220 227 237 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 129 125 119 114 114 113 114 116 120 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 132 128 122 115 109 108 107 107 108 111 116 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 69 64 58 53 51 49 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 21 24 24 23 23 22 20 21 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 88 88 79 92 112 140 145 132 112 106 79 58 29 200 MB DIV 42 25 32 41 64 31 10 -15 9 -11 17 24 0 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -5 -3 -2 -5 0 3 3 9 13 23 24 LAND (KM) 408 514 629 774 924 1226 1509 1793 2054 2115 2057 2038 2097 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.7 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.1 28.9 31.5 34.1 36.5 38.8 40.8 42.8 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 15 7 2 3 0 0 0 1 2 5 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 28. 31. 32. 35. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 21.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 18.7% 15.1% 9.8% 7.6% 11.3% 11.2% 20.1% Logistic: 2.5% 7.2% 4.5% 1.0% 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.9% 6.8% 3.6% 2.7% 4.3% 4.1% 6.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 8.0% 1.0% 9.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/31/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 41 46 51 58 61 62 65 67 65 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 38 43 48 55 58 59 62 64 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 37 42 49 52 53 56 58 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 34 41 44 45 48 50 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT