* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 61 71 74 79 81 81 78 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 61 71 74 79 81 81 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 46 52 58 64 67 67 65 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 11 7 7 10 9 6 4 9 11 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 6 10 3 -2 -4 0 0 5 4 9 SHEAR DIR 56 47 44 112 140 87 101 124 228 253 235 240 230 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 133 128 122 115 115 114 114 116 119 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 134 133 127 119 111 110 107 107 108 110 113 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 71 74 71 72 71 66 60 52 48 46 49 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 24 25 27 26 28 26 28 28 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 99 93 95 90 112 152 159 144 138 124 109 79 64 200 MB DIV 84 73 55 77 80 34 22 -16 5 -4 -6 6 23 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -3 -2 -2 -8 -4 2 0 7 15 17 27 LAND (KM) 347 424 516 664 817 1139 1455 1759 2030 2112 2079 2059 2062 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.6 20.8 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.6 25.1 28.1 31.0 33.8 36.3 38.6 40.6 42.6 44.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 13 5 2 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 7. 5. 7. 6. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 31. 41. 44. 49. 51. 51. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 20.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 19.3% 15.6% 10.4% 8.1% 12.0% 11.3% 19.9% Logistic: 2.0% 6.6% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 9.0% 6.7% 3.9% 2.9% 4.8% 4.2% 6.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/31/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 56 61 71 74 79 81 81 78 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 51 56 66 69 74 76 76 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 44 49 59 62 67 69 69 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 38 48 51 56 58 58 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT