* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 50 57 62 68 70 74 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 50 57 62 68 70 74 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 39 43 47 51 55 58 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 13 5 10 12 10 3 5 10 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 7 8 11 9 0 -4 0 0 5 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 48 48 50 49 62 89 101 124 186 236 203 227 219 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.3 26.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 139 139 138 129 121 115 115 115 115 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 135 134 136 129 119 111 110 109 108 107 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 73 73 71 69 63 55 53 51 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 19 21 23 23 24 24 22 21 19 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 87 96 93 102 93 114 152 145 131 111 97 79 47 200 MB DIV 99 99 90 88 129 61 18 -14 -25 -4 22 18 27 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -12 -7 -9 -3 -5 -2 1 0 14 13 21 LAND (KM) 238 341 432 514 600 851 1203 1527 1821 2084 2122 2047 1986 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 14.4 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.7 19.0 19.7 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.1 21.2 22.0 22.9 25.4 28.7 31.7 34.4 36.8 39.2 41.2 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 11 15 16 14 13 13 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 14 14 17 5 4 0 0 0 1 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 25. 32. 37. 43. 45. 49. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 19.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/30/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 38 43 50 57 62 68 70 74 77 76 18HR AGO 25 24 29 33 38 45 52 57 63 65 69 72 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 37 44 49 55 57 61 64 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 34 39 45 47 51 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT