* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 08/02/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 41 39 33 29 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 41 39 33 29 23 21 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 18 20 26 28 38 39 41 41 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 259 245 232 237 246 263 288 291 298 303 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.9 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 151 147 144 143 133 128 123 125 117 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 133 132 128 125 123 113 108 104 105 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -55.5 -55.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 52 53 57 54 57 51 51 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -28 -30 -30 -44 -31 -34 -9 -11 -15 -45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 10 32 29 23 26 4 15 -19 5 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 10 10 -4 -4 -2 -7 2 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 287 284 264 256 301 552 654 687 728 767 766 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.6 32.4 33.2 34.0 35.4 36.6 37.5 38.2 39.0 39.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.1 77.0 75.9 74.5 73.1 69.8 66.6 63.5 60.4 57.1 53.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 14 15 15 14 13 13 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 40 31 18 14 10 18 21 13 12 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -11. -19. -28. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 11. 9. 3. -1. -7. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.7 78.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 08/02/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.41 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.6% 9.3% 5.3% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.8% 3.4% 1.8% 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 08/02/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 08/02/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 41 39 33 29 23 21 19 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 39 37 31 27 21 19 17 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 34 32 26 22 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT