* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 42 42 42 40 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 37 32 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 42 40 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 10 15 23 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 4 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 285 269 258 248 237 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.4 20.7 17.7 15.5 14.6 15.3 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 86 78 75 74 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 79 74 72 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.6 -57.5 -57.2 -56.8 -55.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4 -0.9 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 60 61 59 58 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 16 16 17 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -30 -23 -33 -49 -72 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 34 22 3 1 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 19 34 32 27 31 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1189 1368 1565 1294 971 382 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.8 46.2 47.6 48.9 50.2 52.3 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.9 34.9 31.9 27.9 23.9 15.9 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 27 29 28 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 20 CX,CY: 15/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 44.8 37.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.7% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.2% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 42 45 37 32 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 44 36 31 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 41 33 28 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 26 21 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT