* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 45 46 45 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 45 46 45 43 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 42 41 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 5 11 22 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 312 284 256 235 244 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.5 21.8 20.7 17.7 15.4 15.4 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 90 86 79 75 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 81 79 74 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.5 -57.5 -57.4 -57.1 -56.3 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.8 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 56 60 60 60 56 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 16 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -48 -28 -43 -39 -57 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 27 37 26 8 1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 41 25 20 19 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1080 1221 1376 1586 1283 672 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.5 44.9 46.2 47.6 49.0 51.1 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.1 37.4 34.8 31.3 27.8 19.9 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 25 27 28 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 43.5 40.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.66 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.07 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/17/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 45 46 45 43 41 40 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 41 43 43 44 45 44 42 40 39 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 39 39 40 41 40 38 36 35 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 33 34 35 34 32 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT