* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 45 48 48 47 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 45 48 48 47 46 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 39 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 317 317 298 272 253 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.9 22.2 20.7 19.2 15.1 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 91 86 82 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 92 81 78 75 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.4 -56.7 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 57 62 66 62 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 16 16 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -81 -59 -29 -2 -28 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 32 18 31 40 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 15 28 45 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 933 974 1044 1174 1324 1283 620 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.6 42.8 44.0 45.4 46.8 49.5 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.8 42.0 40.3 37.8 35.3 28.1 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 20 22 25 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 41.6 43.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.3% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.3% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 41 43 45 48 48 47 46 44 43 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 41 43 46 46 45 44 42 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 36 38 41 41 40 39 37 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 31 34 34 33 32 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT