* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 49 50 53 51 50 49 47 46 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 49 50 53 51 50 49 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 46 47 47 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 7 6 7 9 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 310 319 310 312 310 274 253 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.3 25.1 25.6 20.7 16.8 14.8 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 117 107 113 86 77 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 98 91 96 78 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.5 -56.4 -56.7 -56.7 -57.2 -57.3 -56.4 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.3 -1.2 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 49 51 61 68 66 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 14 15 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -57 -68 -72 -83 -43 -13 -12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 8 -10 23 22 35 24 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 14 13 13 43 44 54 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1075 1020 974 960 968 1156 1543 1023 478 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.5 40.4 41.5 42.6 45.1 48.1 51.0 53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.9 45.3 44.7 43.5 42.3 38.2 32.1 25.0 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 14 17 22 26 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 15. 18. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.6 45.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.8% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.9% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 45 49 50 53 51 50 49 47 46 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 45 46 49 47 46 45 43 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 39 40 43 41 40 39 37 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 32 35 33 32 31 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT